Financial prediction and trading strategies using neurofuzzy approaches
نویسندگان
چکیده
Neurofuzzy approaches for predicting financial time series are investigated and shown to perform well in the context of various trading strategies involving stocks and options. The horizon of prediction is typically a few days and trading strategies are examined using historical data. Two methodologies are presented wherein neural predictors are used to anticipate the general behavior of financial indexes (moving up, down, or staying constant) in the context of stocks and options trading. The methodologies are tested with actual financial data and show considerable promise as a decision making and planning tool.
منابع مشابه
Evaluating direction-of-change forecasting: Neurofuzzy models vs. neural networks
This paper investigates the nonlinear predictability of technical trading rules based on a recurrent neural network as well as a neurofuzzy model. The efficiency of the trading strategies was considered upon the prediction of the direction of the market in case of NASDAQ and NIKKEI returns. The sample extends over the period 2/8/1971–4/7/1998 while the sub-period 4/8/1998–2/5/2002 has been rese...
متن کاملProfitability of Momentum and Contrarian Strategies Based on Trading Volume in Tehran Stock Exchange: A Comparison of Emerging Market
In this study, the profitability of contrarian and momentum strategies were traded in mid- term based on trading volume. The stocks were categorized into three parts (high, middle and low) at the outset. Then, the relationship between excess return with three components such as cross-sectional risk, lead-lag effect and time-series pattern were examined based on Jegadeesh and Titman approach.The...
متن کاملAnalyzing the Effectiveness of Candlestick Technical Trading Strategies in Foreign Exchange Market
Candlestick charts are a type of financial chart for tracking the movement of securities. Some of the earliest technical trading analysis was used to track prices of rice in the 18th century. Some investors find them more visually appealing than the standard bar charts and the price actions easier to interpret. In technical analysis, a candlestick pattern is a movement in prices shown graphical...
متن کاملEXPECTED PAYOFF OF TRADING STRATEGIES INVOLVING EUROPEAN OPTIONS FOR FUZZY FINANCIAL MARKET
Uncertainty inherent in the financial market was usually consid- ered to be random. However, randomness is only one special type of uncer- tainty and appropriate when describing objective information. For describing subjective information it is preferred to assume that uncertainty is fuzzy. This paper defines the expected payoof trading strategies in a fuzzy financial market within the framewor...
متن کاملAlgorithmic Trading of Futures via Machine Learning
A lgorithmic trading of securities has become a staple of modern approaches to financial investment. In this project, I attempt to obtain an effective strategy for trading a collection of 27 financial futures based solely on their past trading data. All of the strategies that I consider are based on predictions of the future price and volatility of the various securities under consideration, an...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- IEEE transactions on systems, man, and cybernetics. Part B, Cybernetics : a publication of the IEEE Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Society
دوره 28 4 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 1998